Do not forget basis
Futures timing gets all the attention, but the basis half of your bean price has its own calendar. Harvest basis at most interior locations is the weakest of the year, and it usually recovers through winter as crush plants and exporters bid for supply. If you have storage, holding beans past harvest with the price locked often adds money without any futures opinion at all. If you do not have storage, consider setting basis early for harvest delivery when buyers offer it, rather than taking whatever the pit hands you in October. The best futures hedge in the world still ends at your local bid.
The bean calendar is front-loaded with risk
Soybeans are made in August, not July. The old saying is that corn is made in July and beans in August, and the market knows it. Weather scares in June and early July can still produce strong rallies on planting problems or early dryness, but the biggest pricing windows often come during pod-fill when a hot, dry August threatens yield.
The trap is that August rallies feel like the start of something bigger. Sometimes they are. More often, once September confirms pod counts and combines start rolling, prices fade into harvest lows. Selling increments into summer strength keeps you from betting the whole crop on one weather outcome.
Watch South America
Brazil and Argentina now produce more soybeans than the United States, and their harvest runs roughly February through May. A big South American crop caps US rallies in spring and early summer. A poor one opens the door to stronger US prices later. Keep an eye on CONAB and USDA estimates of Brazilian production when you plan your selling calendar.
- March-May. South American harvest pressure often weighs on prices.
- June-July. US weather market begins; rallies are selling opportunities.
- August. Pod-fill scares can produce the high of the year.
- September-October. Harvest pressure builds as supply is confirmed.
Use a written plan
Decide in advance what percentage you will sell at each price level and each calendar window, then execute without renegotiating with yourself. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors, so match the tool to your comfort level, whether that is forward contracts, futures, or options.