What the Report Contains and When It Lands
Every Monday at 4 p.m. Eastern during the growing season — roughly April through November — USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service publishes Crop Progress. For corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, and other major crops, it reports the percentage of acreage planted, emerged, at key growth stages (silking, pod setting, denting), and harvested, plus a weekly condition rating sorted from very poor to excellent. Data is shown for the current week, last week, last year, and the five-year average, for 18 major producing states and the national total.
The condition ratings draw the most attention. Analysts have long used the share of the crop rated good-to-excellent as a running yield proxy: a crop holding 75% good-to-excellent in July reads very differently than one sliding through the low 60s.
How the Market Trades It
Because the report lands after the Monday close, its impact shows up in the Monday evening session and Tuesday trade. The market reacts to surprises, not levels — a 3-point drop in good-to-excellent ratings when traders expected steady can move December corn sharply, while the same number fully anticipated produces a shrug. During weather scares, when condition ratings are the freshest hard data available, the weekly report can be the biggest market event of the summer stretch.
Planting and harvest pace matter at the season's edges. Slow planting in May feeds prevent-plant talk and supports prices; a fast, early harvest in September adds harvest pressure to cash markets and basis.
Using It as a Marketer, Not a Gambler
- Watch the trend, not one week. A single down week in conditions can be noise; three consecutive declines is a deteriorating crop and usually a supported market.
- Compare against expectations. Trade estimates are published before the report. The gap between expectation and print is what moves prices — and what makes holding unhedged positions over Monday afternoon a real decision.
- Connect conditions to your plan. A nationally deteriorating crop with rising prices is a selling opportunity for your bushels — and a warning about any forward contracts that exceed your insurance guarantee.
- Remember it is survey data. Condition ratings are assessor judgment, not measured yield. Final yields regularly surprise the condition-implied estimate in both directions, especially late in the season.
The report is free, public, and takes ten minutes to read. For grain marketers, those ten minutes each Monday are some of the best-informed time you will spend all week.